Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
Cote d'Ivoire is on the brink of what may be a very bad 2011. After a five-year delay, Cote d'Ivoire held presidential elections on October 31. A peaceful first round of voting was commended by the international community, but the runoff between incumbent Laurent Gbagbo and former Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara was marred by clashes and allegations of fraud on both sides. It's very possible that Cote d'Ivoire will take a turn for the worse in 2011. Gbagbo and Ouattara both have heavily armed supporters who seem ready to fight for the long haul.
Colombia
Despite a series of strategic losses in recent years - from territory to key leadership - the country's leftist guerrillas, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), still maintain about 8,000 armed troops and perhaps twice that number of supporters. The rebels killed some 30 police in the weeks after Santos's inauguration, clearly to make a point. Meanwhile, new illegal armed groups have sprung up to capture the drug trafficking market, their ranks filled with former paramilitary fighters. If these new armed groups are not contained, Colombia stands to regress in its long fight to finally root out the drug trade - and the militancy it fuels.
Zimbabwe
Keep an eye on Zimbabwe in 2011 as the country's "unity" government - joining longtime President Robert Mugabe with opposition leader Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai - will warrant its conciliatory name less and less by the day. The flashpoint? Elections. Both men want to hold them - but they don't agree about what Zimbabweans should be voting on.
Iraq
Iraq today is in far better shape than it was in 2007, when nearly two dozen Iraqis were dying each day in suicide bombings. But it's still far from out of the woods. And these days, it's not militants but the country's politics that pose the biggest threat. The new government, formed in December after nine months of wrangling, is weak and lacks the institutions to rule effectively. Iraq's neighbors could exploit the country's ongoing political turmoil to gain influence and sway, particularly Iran, which has long supported Shiite militants. Insurgents also await an opportunity to capitalize on political discord. At the same time, US troops will be largely - if not entirely - withdrawn by the end of next year. And lacking that safety net, it would take very little for the country to lapse back into conflict.
Venezuela
Over the next 12 months, watch for Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to take his brand of 21st-century socialism to the extremes. Having lost his majority in Parliament in September, Chavez has since been working hard to ensure that the new, opposition legislature will be irrelevant by the time it is sworn in in January. The Venezuelan president has consolidated control over the military and police, seized more private companies, and won temporary "decree powers" from the outgoing, pro-government National Assembly. Government-allied street gangs in Caracas stand ready to defend his revolution with Kalashnikovs.
Sudan
The fate of Sudan in 2011 will be set early, on January 9, when a referendum on southern self-determination is scheduled to take place, and which will likely result in independence for the south.
Should the vote go poorly, we might witness the re-ignition of conflict between north and south and an escalation of violence in Darfur, all of which could potentially draw in regional states. At this point, nothing is certain.
Finally, there's the tricky matter of creating a new, independent Southern Sudan, which many are already dubbing a pre-failed state. The border remains undecided - no small matter since the contested middle ground happens to sit on a large oil field.
Mexico
It has been four years since Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared war on the country's drug lords. During that time, 30,000 people have fallen victim to the conflict, many of them along the northern border with the United States, largely as a result of in-fighting among rival gangs vying for control of trafficking corridors.
America remains the largest market for drugs in the world, and so long as US users demand product, the cartels will keep the supply flowing.
Guatemala
Mexico's drug war is also sending shockwaves throughout Latin America. Under pressure from the Mexican state, the most infamous cartels are seeking friendlier ground and finding it in Guatemala, where the state is weak and the institutions are fragile. In the worst case scenario for 2011, Guatemala could be host to a perpetual turf war of attrition between these various cartels, all competing to control drug trafficking routes - and increasingly human-trafficking corridors - to the United States.
Haiti
Nature had it in for Haiti in 2010, but it may be politics that batters the small island country in the coming year. A November 28 presidential election, which should have led to the election of a new, legitimate government, remains wedged in an impasse over allegations of fraud. Already, Haiti was on the verge of a social breakdown. Today, more than 1 million Haitians remain homeless in the ruined capital. The government, whose ranks and infrastructure were devastated by the earthquake, has no capacity to deliver services or provide security. The run-off election will mark a year since the earthquake, with little improvement in the everyday lives of Haitians, whose patience is running out.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan, a land of striking beauty, grinding poverty, and rapacious leaders, could well become the next stomping ground for guerrillas - Central Asians and other Muslims from the former Soviet Union - who have been fighting alongside the Taliban for years and may now be thinking of returning home to settle scores with the region's brutal and corrupt leaders.
There is rising concern in Washington that Tajikistan will become the new theater of operations for Islamic militants, and might offer a convenient route for insurgent penetration of other volatile or vulnerable parts of Central Asia - first off, Tajikistan's desperately weak neighbor, Kyrgyzstan. In the coming year, it's easy to imagine Tajikistan sliding further and further toward a failed state as the government quietly cedes control of whole sections of the country to militants.
Pakistan
It's hard to remember a time when Pakistan didn't seem on the brink of collapse. This coming year will likely be no exception. The country faces a humanitarian crisis in its mid-section where floods displaced 10 million people, a security threat from terrorist groups operating on Pakistani soil, and political instability from a weak administration still trying to wield civilian control over the all-powerful military. Meanwhile in Islamabad, the civilian leadership under President Asif Ali Zardari has grown unpopular and weak, plagued by corruption and an inability to maintain control of the military leaders.
Somalia
If Somalia keeps heading south in 2011, the entire country could fall under Islamist insurgent control. Up to now, the country's UN-backed transitional government has withstood attacks from Islamist insurgents only thanks to protection from an African Union peacekeeping force; it remains weak and divided, a national government in name alone. Further, the capital city of Mogadishu is under perpetual siege by militants, a reality that has sent millions fleeing from their homes in this year alone.
Lebanon
Still smarting from a war with Israel in 2006 that left a precarious balance of power between Christians and Islamic fundamentalists, Lebanon today is arguably more than ever on the brink. Beneath the surface, tensions are mounting with no obvious safety valve. The deterrence regime has helped keep the peace, but the process it perpetuates - mutually reinforcing military preparations, Hezbollah's growing and more sophisticated arsenal, escalating Israeli threats - pulls in the opposite direction and could trigger the very result it has averted so far.
Nigeria
Nigeria's 2010 was about as rough as they come: The country's president disappeared on medical leave - and then died - hundreds were killed in sectarian violence between Muslims and Christians in the country's middle belt, and a rebel amnesty in the oil-producing Niger Delta region completely unravelled, leading to a string of bombing attacks and kidnappings.
The rebellion in the Niger Delta is flaring up again, with militants promising to continue attacking oil facilities and government offices. A once effective anti-corruption commission has lost its momentum. And vast economic inequality is the order of the day, leaving oil wealth in the hands of a few while the majority of the country's 140 million people languish.
Guinea
Guinea enters 2011 on a hopeful path. In December, the West African country inaugurated its first-ever elected leader, Alpha Conde. After decades of strongman rule, followed by a 2009 coup, this new leadership seems nothing less than miraculous. But Guinea's military now has a strong stake in controlling mineral wealth - the country is the world's largest producer of bauxite - and other major industries. In the past, it has used strong-arm tactics to get its way, economically and otherwise, and this old habit will surely die hard. Having tasted the fruits of power under the junta, the military may not so easily return to its barracks.
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Years after the official end of the Second Congo War, which raged from 1998 to 2003 and was responsible for up to 4.5 million deaths, whole swathes of the enormous Central African country remain in upheaval. In the eastern Kivu provinces, an undisciplined national army battles with rebel groups for territorial control. Amid the frenzy of violence and rape that follows in their path, the world's largest UN peacekeeping force is at a loss to protect even those civilians that live close to its bases.
Lurking behind the conflict is Congo's vast natural wealth. Government, militants, private corporations, and local citizens all angle to tap the gold, cobalt, copper, coltan and host of other minerals under the country's soil - which are focused in the east and south of the country. Meanwhile, the central government lies nearly 1,000 miles to the west, separated from its eastern provinces by impenetrable jungle, a different language, and ethnicity. Rebel groups still roam the eastern border regions, exercising their authority with impunity and cruelty. Neither the government nor rebel groups have the strength to win, but both have the resources to keep fighting indefinitely.