“These seem to be ordinary spring days; the Sun rises every morning, and life carries on. But in truth, we are standing at a historic precipice. We are making a tragic, fundamental error in our assessment of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for the global order.

We mistakenly believe that the American blockade on Iranian ports is gradually suffocating Tehran and will ultimately compel its surrender. The reality is exactly the reverse. Iran, conditioned by 47 years of life under sanctions, scoffs at this economic friction. We – the free world entire – are the ones being suffocated, and at a terrifying pace.

Does Washington not realize that Tehran is already holding the world hostage? Do they not understand that hegemony over Hormuz is ‘the bomb’ – a weapon far more immediate and devastating than any nuclear arsenal?” (jpost.com)

“Indifferent to the vast suffering of their own civilians, Iran’s hardliners scent weakness. Iranian media outlets are crowing that Trump has blinked first – and with some justification. The mullahs have few incentives to throttle back now. Besides, as Trump himself admits, it’s no longer clear who in Iran – a vast territory the size of Western Europe – is in charge.

While both Tehran and Washington would welcome an end to this horrific exchange of fire, Benjamin Netanyahu – the prime minister of Israel, whose air force has played such a key role in the attacks – will be harder to persuade.

The Jewish state feels it is in mortal danger from the Islamic Republic and its chants of ‘Death to Israel’. Netanyahu has no intention of stopping the raids until the mullahs are crushed or, at the very least, have lost all ability to exploit nuclear technology. Neither outcome seems likely in the short term.

I fear that Trump and Netanyahu have started something they cannot stop. And that any ‘peace’ will merely be a ceasefire before the bloodshed – AND PARALYSING ECONOMIC CRISES – break out anew.” (dailymail.co.uk)

“Brits are being braced for a summer of shortages with warnings that chicken and pork are among a swathe of products at risk from the Iran war. A ‘reasonable worst case’ scenario drawn up by the Government suggested that disruption to carbon dioxide supplies from the Middle East could have major impacts. Ministers have been war-gaming prioritising the gas for healthcare - where it is crucial for kit such as MRI machines - and civil nuclear power.

But that could affect slaughterhouses, with most pigs and chickens killed using the gas. Breweries and soft drinks manufacturing could also be hit. The possibility will add to fears about looming issues with diesel, jet fuel and fertiliser as the turmoil continues from Donald Trump’s war on Iran.” (dailymail.co.uk)

“The world has lost 40 percent of its HELIUM supply since the start of the Gulf war, first from Qatar and then from Russia. We will find out soon enough whether the global digital economy can shrug off losses on this scale and whether political leaders will allow the AI boom to keep gobbling up an ever greater share of the scarce helium that remains. Industry cannot make advanced AI chips or semiconductors below 10 nanometres without ultra-high purity helium to cool the wafers and stabilise the plasma for etching. Even workhorse chips for cars and computers require lower-grade helium at 99.999 percent purity.

But we also need helium for other high priorities: in nuclear power, advanced weaponry, aerospace, fibre-optic cables, quantum computing, chromatography or to cool superconducting magnets in MRI machines. ‘Everybody is scrambling around trying to scoop up whatever they can find in the world,’ said Phil Kornbluth, the founder of Kornbluth Helium and former head of gases at BOC.

There are no easy substitutes. Liquid helium is the coldest known substance on Earth, with a boiling point of -269°C. It cannot be synthesised artificially – it comes from the radioactive decay of thorium and uranium – and is hard to store. China has strategic stockpiles of everything but not for this one vital input.

One thing we should have learned from Covid is that once the world’s just-in-time supply chain goes into convulsions, with ships scattered to the four winds and stuck in the wrong place, the effects can be drastic, long-lasting, and out of all proportion to the nominal value of the goods themselves.” (telegraph.co.uk)

“Wholesalers to thousands of shops, schools, care homes and hospitals have warned Rachel Reeves of supply-chain issues as surging fuel prices threaten the sustainability of their businesses. The food industry is scrambling to mitigate the fallout from the war in Iran, which has sent shockwaves through the global economy and caused the price of oil to skyrocket after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz. If prices for fuel continue to rise, wholesalers will be forced to pass the costs onto local businesses, which in turn will drive up prices and food inflation.” (thetimes.com)

“Spring has sprung, which means seeds that were planted in late winter are starting to germinate. They’re hungry and will only grow to their full nutritional potential if they’re well fed. But that, apparently, isn’t happening, as fertilizer supplies are interrupted by yet another pointless Middle East war. The result? Global food shortages that might dwarf the COVID-era Costco-hoarding mess of recent memory.

The biological calendar does not negotiate. Corn requires nitrogen at the V6 to VT growth stage or kernel set is permanently reduced. Wheat requires it at tillering and jointing or grain fill collapses. Rice requires it at transplanting or yield drops 20 to 40 percent in low-input systems.

These are not economic models. They are cellular processes. The plant either receives nitrogen during the window or it does not. If it does not, no subsequent application, no price increase, no policy reversal can recover what was lost. The damage is written into the biology of the seed.” (zerohedge.com)

“The war in the Gulf has hit the epicentre of global fertiliser production. It has shut off the supply of urea, ammonia and sulphur for 27 critical days in the agricultural calendar. The crunch is happening just as the big farming belts of the northern hemisphere near the spring planting season and just as Australia approaches winter planting. It is the blackest of black swans.

Jean-Marie Paugam, from the World Trade Organization, said the fertiliser shock is a greater immediate threat than the oil and gas shock.

‘I don’t want to sound the alarm too much yet but this could be catastrophic if it lasts long,’ said David Delaney, the head of the US fertiliser group Itafos, speaking to Bloomberg.” (telegraph.co.uk)

“Farmers all over America are on edge right now, and I certainly can’t blame them. The war in the Middle East has created a fertilizer crisis at the worst time possible. If nitrogen fertilizer is not applied to wheat, corn and rice at the proper time, there is no hope of recovery later. Since it does not appear that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened any time soon, there will be serious crop losses in the United States, and in poorer countries throughout the world it will be even worse.

Meanwhile, most of the country is experiencing at least some level of drought right now. If you check out the latest map from the US Drought Monitor, it looks like a horror show. Even if there was no war going on in the Middle East, farmers in the US would still be facing a nightmarish drought that never seems to end.

A real life nightmare is playing out right in front of our eyes, and it appears that we are still only in the very early stages.” (themostimportantnews.com)

“Every single day that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the damage that is being done to the global economy is getting even worse. But the full consequences of the global oil crisis that we are facing will not be felt for a while because nations all over the globe are still running through their strategic oil reserves. And the full consequences of the global fertilizer crisis that we are facing will not be felt until harvest season. So don’t judge the severity of this emergency by what we are experiencing at this moment, because the truth is that what we are experiencing at this moment is just the very small tip of a very large iceberg.

US wheat farmers are facing the worst drought in the heartland of America since the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s… In some areas of the country, conditions are so exceedingly dry that it just doesn’t make sense for farmers to try to grow anything.” (theeconomiccollapseblog.com)

“We live at a time when most people don’t know where their food comes from, and so they have no idea that we are facing an agricultural nightmare in 2026. The historic drought is devastating our heartland and the nightmarish fertilizer crisis that has been caused by the war in the Middle East. Today, I am going to talk about the stunning decline of the US cattle herd, concerns about the winter wheat harvest, and the frightening drop that we have witnessed in Florida orange production.

Just how far the orange crop has fallen is shocking. Thirty years ago, 225 million boxes of oranges were picked from Florida orange groves. That was almost enough for one box of oranges for every American in the mid-1990s. This year, the forecast from the US Agriculture Department is 12 million boxes. That is a drop of 95% in one generation.

Meanwhile, the multi-year drought that the heartland of America is experiencing is making it very difficult to produce sufficient quantities of hard red winter wheat… Just think about all of the things that you eat on a regular basis that have wheat in them.

Beef prices have also become very painful, and that is because the size of the US cattle herd has fallen to the lowest level that we have seen since 1951… In 1951, approximately 154 million people lived in the United States. Today, approximately 342 million people live in the United States. So we are trying to feed more than twice as many people with the same amount of cattle that we had in 1951.” (theeconomiccollapseblog.com)

“‘Rebuilding, whether it’s corrals or fences, takes time and takes money,’ said Nebraska Cattlemen President Craig Uden, noting that THOUSANDS OF MILES of pasture fencing were destroyed in the blazes. Replacement costs usually exceed $10,000 PER MILE, cutting into ranchers’ incomes even if they don’t show up in consumer prices.” (bloomberg.com)

“UBS analysts, led by Jonathan Pingle, told clients on Thursday morning that drought conditions across the US agricultural belt rank among the worst in more than 130 years: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Palmer Drought Severity Index hit its highest level for March since records started in 1895, and March was the third driest month recorded, regardless of time of year, behind only the famed 1930s Dust Bowl: July and August 1934.

Worth watching, the drought could lead to supply pressure and price pressure from the agricultural sector, on top of other pressures of concern at the moment. Pingle warned, All eyes have been focused on the Middle East but another supply shock may be unfolding in US agricultural production.” (zerohedge.com)

“Six days ago, in Marsberg, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized the US approach to Iran, saying Washington was being ‘humiliated by the Iranian leadership’ and demanding the conflict end ‘as quickly as possible.’ Three days ago, President Trump responded with an announcement that US troops in Germany would be drawn down, and there would be a 25% tariff on all imported European autos. Suddenly, Friedrich Merz reverses his position: When people argue that it’s not about the economics of the thing – remind them, IT’S ALWAYS ABOUT THE ECONOMICS OF THE THING.

Germany is facing a perfect storm of economic consequences following their decision to chase the climate change agenda (Build Back Better) and eliminate their coal and nuclear power plants. Combine the German/EU policy to stop purchasing cheap LNG and oil from Russia, in addition to skyrocketing energy costs from oil/gas flows from the Middle East, and the outcome is rising manufacturing costs leading to massive layoffs.

The German industrial economy is the heart of the EU economy, and President Trump is now hitting them both right where it hurts.” (theconservativehouse.com)