GERMANY - A network of German research centers and defense contractors are working on specialized nuclear and shockwave physics projects. According to Russia’s foreign intelligence agency, Berlin’s NATO allies think this work bears all the hallmarks of a covert atomic weapons program. Thirty German universities have stepped up their work in specialized materials science, shock wave physics, and nuclear and neutron physics, Russia’s SVR intelligence agency said in a statement on Monday.
MIDDLE EAST - The price of crude oil is a broken barometer. Acute pain in the world energy market has switched to the trio of refined products that we actually consume: diesel, petrol and jet fuel. The IATA jet fuel index for global airlines has hit $154 a barrel in Europe and $149 in North America, almost double the cost of underlying crude. In trade parlance, the “crack spread” has gone mad. It is arguably worse for diesel. The spread over crude has reached $80 in Rotterdam and $88 in New York, the highest since records began. The whole global market is seizing up. “I’ve never seen an energy environment this stretched,” said Jeff Currie, perhaps the world’s best-known oil guru. Oil traders say it would not take much at this stage to set off a sudden “non-linear” spike to $200 levels. We have been lulled into complacency by deceptively moderate oil headlines and by assumptions that the Iran war has settled into a low-intensity management problem. It is nothing of the sort.
SAUDI ARABIA - Saudi Arabia must recognise Israel to secure its civil nuclear deal with the US, Donald Trump has said. The President was criticised after announcing the agreement on Wednesday over fears it could enable the Gulf kingdom to obtain an atomic weapon. Experts warned there were not enough guardrails in place to prevent nuclear proliferation in an already unstable region. But on Thursday Mr Trump insisted the deal will see 'no enrichment of material' and 'pertains only to non-military use'. He said it 'will be approved' then added it 'is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords'. Mr Trump brokered the agreements in his first term which saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain recognise the Jewish state. Sudan, Morocco and Kazakhstan have since also signed on. The US leader is desperate to make Saudi Arabia join, which would represent a historic achievement in the Middle East.
USA - As if the growing risk of a global economic disaster springing from the US-Israeli war on Iran weren't enough to worry about, researchers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center are warning that miscalculations and false assumptions may have resulted in an enormous underestimation of the worst-case effects of a solar storm. Solar storms are events in which the sun experiences a massive explosion of energy, charged particles and magnetic fields. From solar flares to coronal mass ejections (CMEs), these explosions pose a danger to all kinds of electronics, from your cell phone, computer and car to gas pumps, airplanes, power stations and everything in between.
UK - Britain's government said Thursday it had withdrawn all remaining diplomatic staff from Iran as the conflict between Iran and the US escalates. "Due to the security situation, UK staff have been temporarily withdrawn from Iran. Our embassy continues to operate remotely," the foreign office said on its website. Britain withdrew its embassy staff from Iran in June, following the same move by other European nations [France and Germany] as well as Australia and New Zealand. Those withdrawals came as Israel launched renewed airstrikes on Iran, claiming the Islamic Republic was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon.
UK - The boss of British Gas has warned the country risks winter energy shortages as reserves dwindle. Chris O’Shea said Britain was at risk because of a lack of gas storage facilities. His warning came as gas prices surged to their highest level in a year, driven by concerns about threats to Middle Eastern supply. There were also moves by electricity grid bosses on Thursday to shore up Britain’s energy system by restricting how much power can be exported to Europe during times of stress. The National Energy System Operator (NESO) said the curbs would take effect from Friday, as it faces questions over how close Britain came to blackouts during a heatwave in June. Official data show the UK currently has less than a week’s worth of gas reserves. European nations typically hold several weeks’ worth of supply, though stocks on the Continent have also been run down.
UK - The first drought of the summer has been declared in the UK after record-breaking heatwaves. Parts of Wales have been placed under drought status after high temperatures dried up riverbeds and raised concerns among farmers about grazing conditions and water supplies. The risk of wildfires has significantly increased with North Wales in particular experiencing a number of major blazes in recent weeks. Many parts of England are in prolonged dry weather status as the country has received just 3 per cent of its average July rainfall. Wildfires have been raging across England, while Scotland has also been hit by a major blaze in the Cairngorms. Drought has been declared in parts of North Wales and the Upper Severn catchment, including Gwynedd, Anglesey, Conwy, the Dee and Clwyd areas.
EUROPE - European wildfires threatening Madrid and French resorts have become impossible to control in some areas as hundreds of thousands, including British holidaymakers, are forced from their homes. Large forest fires have become 'out of control' in southwestern France and central Spain today, sparking an evacuation of an estimated 200,000 people from their homes. The fire in Madrid is said to put at risk a NASA and ESA communications complex, one of three comprising a network studying deep space. About 141,000 people fled their homes in Gironde and Landes in France, while 60,000 were forced to evacuate their houses in Spain, the countries' respective Interior ministries confirmed.
MIDDLE EAST - Oil prices settled above $100 on Thursday for the first time since May after Yemen's Houthis said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, causing further global supply disruptions following a near-halt in trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs said Brent might exceed $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter and average $100 next year if the strait remains disrupted through 2027, with further upside if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal also suffer persistent disruption.
USA - A powerful version of ChatGPT went rogue and hacked another technology company during internal testing, OpenAI has admitted. The Silicon Valley AI giant admitted last night that one of its AI bots escaped from a supposedly secure IT system during a trial-run of its hacking capabilities. OpenAI, the $850 billion (£630 billion) AI lab, said the “unprecedented” hack had seen its AI bot infiltrate another AI and coding business called Hugging Face and attempt to steal information. The hack will raise fears that AI labs could struggle to contain their most advanced creations and revive concerns that new tools could be repurposed for unstoppable cyber attacks.
USA - Donald Trump has warned Iran that for every ship it attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, US forces will blow up a bridge or power plant. The US president said no bridges or power plants were off limits, and that Washington could target some in Tehran. Mr Trump wrote on Truth Social: “From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran.” Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said: “Our defense doctrine is clear: eye for an eye. Any aggression against Iran, including our infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response."
IRAN - Does Iran have the ability to conduct 9/11-style attacks on US soil? As you will see below, the Iranians are making all sorts of very serious threats and they are encouraging us to “prepare as many coffins as possible”. But most Americans do not take such threats seriously. They seem to believe that the war that is raging on the other side of the planet could never reach us. According to Iran’s state-linked Tasnim news agency, the IRGC said: “If the war continues, we will carry out regret-inducing operations that will lead to national mourning in America.” The warning appeared to invoke the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, after which the United States declared national mourning.
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