USA - World mocks bizarre kind of victory: White House declares triumph despite Iran being emboldened and demanding tolls on the still-closed Strait - as attacks continue on Gulf states andLebanon.Donald Trump's peace deal with Iran was hanging by a thread on Wednesday night as Tehran halted tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. It warned that unauthorised ships would be 'targeted and destroyed'. As the White House declared a dramatic and decisive victory in the Middle East, it remained unclear who controlled the vital waterway, through which 20 per cent of the world's oil and gas is transported. Iranian officials said oil tankers using the Strait would have to pay tolls in cryptocurrency of $1 per barrel, potentially amounting to £2.2 million per ship. State media also reported the ceasefire would fail if Israel continued attacking Lebanon, home to Iranian terrorist proxy Hezbollah.

USA - NATO is not about to disappear in a single grand act of American secession. Great alliances rarely end that neatly. They deteriorate first in language, then in habits, and finally in expectations. After the Iran war triggered the latest transatlantic crisis, after Trump’s tantrum over Europe’s refusal to join, and after months of bitter disputes over Ukraine, the alliance appears less like a settled strategic agreement than a structure maintained by memory and convenience. That is why its future is unlikely to involve triumphant renewal or outright disintegration. The more probable fate is a living shell: too established to be abandoned, too mistrusted to inspire confidence, still almost functioning because the alternative is too dangerous and costly. NATO is, above all, a trust institution. Article 5 is not magic; it functions because governments, military leaders, and the public believe that the promise will be honoured in a crisis. That trust is now seriously damaged on both sides. Europe observed Washington initiate a war against Iran outside NATO’s core scope and then demand loyalty for offensive measures in the Strait of Hormuz.

CHINA - China has reserved five patches of airspace off its north-east coast for a 40-day period with no explanation. Beijing normally restricts airspace when it plans to conduct military drills, but it has not announced any exercises during the reserved period, which began on March 27 and will run until May 6. People’s Liberation Army (PLA) drills also do not usually last longer than a few days. The reservation is known as “Notice to Air Missions”, or Notams, and is intended to inform aviation authorities of temporary hazards along a flight route or at a specific location.

USA - The US military – together with its Israeli allies – has already achieved a devastating victory over Iran on the battlefield, one that could be extended even further if the Iranians prove to be recalcitrant in forthcoming talks aimed at making the ceasefire permanent. The latest Pentagon analysis shows that Iran has suffered ruinous losses on a variety of fronts, including 80 per cent of its air defences, the almost total destruction of its navy and the decimation of its weapons production facilities. It is certainly fatuous in the extreme to suggest, as some Western foreign policy “experts” appear to be doing, that Trump’s decision to accept the 11th-hour ceasefire is nothing short of a capitulation. With most of the Iranian regime’s key leaders either dead or severely incapacitated through injury – including, reportedly, Mojtaba Khamenei, the country’s new Supreme Leader – Tehran is now in survival mode, desperately doing anything that will enable the Islamic Republic to survive in power.

USA - Donald Trump has threatened to wipe out Iran on Tuesday if it does not agree to a ceasefire. The US president said he could bomb the Islamic Republic back to the “Stone Ages”, destroying all of its power stations and bridges within four hours, if no deal were in place by 1am UK time. “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” Mr Trump told a White House press conference on Monday evening. “I hope I don’t have to do it.” He said any deal must be “acceptable” to him, and must include the free movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. “We have a plan, because of the power of our military, where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12 o’clock tomorrow night. Where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again,” he said. “I mean complete demolition by 12 o’clock, and it will happen over a period of four hours if we want it to.”

MIDDLE EAST - If the US Navy can’t open the Strait of Hormuz, it’s mad to suggest anyone else can. As the US-Israeli war with Iran enters its sixth week, Tehran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a weapon. Thirty-five nations – including France, Germany, Italy, Japan and key Gulf partners – gathered in London this week with a clear goal: to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait through diplomatic pressure. It is explicitly not a combat alliance joining the US-Israeli war. Britain has made clear throughout that it will not bomb Iranian targets. One truth remains though: if Iran chooses not to stop shooting and controlling the Strait, there is very little we could do, even collectively. The idea that a disparate collection of well-meaning but medium-capability warships could collectively succeed where the US Navy has so far refused to even try is for the birds. But we should let the diplomatic collective play out – it’s a positive step and we have the lead.

USA - A strange reading of the Bible by some evangelical Protestants is worryingly influential on this administration’s foreign policy. Holy Week coincided with a Holy War: America v Iran, the clash of the fundamentalisms. At a Pentagon prayer meeting, Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Divine Vengeance, whose rippling body is tattooed with an AR-15 and a Jerusalem cross, asked God to “let every round find its mark against the enemies of righteousness and our great nation”. It probably sounded better in the original Persian. And at a White House Easter lunch, pastors compared Donald Trump to Jesus – “betrayed and arrested and falsely accused” – or an Old Testament monarch who saved the Jews from ancient Persia.

IRAN - Rather than collapsing, the Islamic Republic appears to be undergoing a structural shift. Power is gradually concentrating in the hands of a hardened security elite composed of Revolutionary Guard commanders, intelligence officials, and security institutions that now dominate the political system. What is emerging is not simply a clerical regime under pressure, but something closer to a clerical-military junta. Rather than collapsing, the regime is hardening. Rather than moderating, it is militarizing. And rather than seeking reconciliation with the international community, it is preparing for a prolonged confrontation in which survival – not reform – remains the ultimate objective.

GERMANY - The country’s crisis-stricken car industry is eyeing a military pivot that could boost national growth. Germans had assumed that the US and NATO would handle any security threats. “That’s not necessarily a given any more. If there’s a new threat, then sometimes mindsets change – that’s what is happening now.” It’s not only mindsets that are changing. Germany has handed a huge pot of gold to its military, and the country’s vast but beleaguered industrial machine is pivoting towards it. In the past, much of this spending would have headed offshore, winding up in the hands of big American defence contractors. But Donald Trump’s triggering of a transatlantic rift has changed the game. Berlin now wants to reduce its dependence on the US by building a domestic defence industry. According to Politico, of 178 defence projects tendered recently, 160 have gone to German contractors, with a combined value of €182 billion.

TURKEY - Turkey’s growing regional influence and ties to Hamas challenge NATO and US security. As Iran and its proxies take a beating from American and Israeli forces, observers are questioning whether Turkey is waiting in the wings to emerge as the region’s next “bogeyman.” The answer is likely yes, albeit in its own form. Turkey is not Iran, but depicting Turkey as a nuisance or simply “complicated” only emboldens a maturing adversarial regime with an established track record of undermining its Western allies. One does not need to reach far into the past to find examples. As recently as March 9, Turkey positioned six American-made F-16 fighter jets on the occupied part of Cyprus. The move was a significant escalation in the militarization of contested territory, not to mention a possible violation of US law. The half-dozen combat aircraft were also a visible act of intimidation directed at Israel, which lies less than 300 miles from Cyprus.