MIDDLE EAST - Stinchfield: “Iran should have never gotten near those tankers now on fire!” Trump is furious! Overnight, Iranian drones struck commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving freighters burning and sending shockwaves through global energy markets. But here’s the question I’m asking today: why wasn’t the US Navy ready for this? Iran has said for years that its number one military objective in a conflict would be shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. That threat wasn’t hidden. It was repeated over and over again. Yet ships are now on fire in the world’s most important shipping lane. Protecting that corridor is the responsibility of the US Fifth Fleet. So, how did the most predictable move Iran could make catch us unprepared?

RUSSIA - The temporary measure is expected to cool global energy markets as crude prices continue to soar after US-Israeli attacks on Iran. The US has eased sanctions to allow countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded on vessels at sea, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The move comes as escalating Middle East tensions triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran have sent global oil prices soaring. The US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28, prompting Iranian retaliatory attacks across the region. The crisis has led to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz – which carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply – as Iran effectively blocks transit for ships from non-friendly nations, sending oil prices surging nearly 50% to almost $120 per barrel.

MIDDLE EAST - The Strait of Hormuz, just 24 miles wide and surrounded by sunbaked rocky deserts, is among the world’s least appealing seaways. But the narrow waterway is a crucial trade route for vast parts of the global economy, with 40,000 tankers and cargo vessels crossing it every year. Most of us know about the oil and gas riches pumped out by Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which travel through the waterway – collectively exporting 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas through the narrow strip of water. But the Persian Gulf is a global choke point for a raft of other vital commodities too – including the fertilisers that feed US and EU farms, the sulphur needed for everything from batteries to metals, and, going the other way, the Indian rice and other grains which keep the region from starvation. With the war on its 10th day, and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed over threats from Iran, there are growing fears that the global economy is teetering on the brink of a major crisis.

MIDDLE EAST - The Iran war has triggered an even bigger oil shock than the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. The Paris-based agency said the conflict in the Middle East had caused the “largest disruption to crude supplies in the history of the global oil market”. The amount of oil carried by tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged from around 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) to “a trickle”, it said. By contrast, around four mb/d were removed from global markets by the Arab oil embargo during the Yom Kippur war of 1973. Not only is the hit to global supply bigger but production has also suffered a deeper blow. With “limited capacity” to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf countries have been forced to cut production by at least 10mb/d as storage sites have filled up, the IEA said. By contrast, production was reduced by about five mb/d in 1973.

USA - The number of Americans losing their homes to banks has risen for the twelfth consecutive month, highlighting mounting pressure in the US housing market. In February, foreclosure activity reached 38,840 properties - a 20 percent increase compared with the same month last year. Filings track the full spectrum of the process, from initial lender warnings to the formal repossession of homes after missed mortgage payments. This strain is already being felt in neighborhoods. As banks seize more homes and flood the market with discounted properties, surrounding home values drop, eroding equity for nearby homeowners who have kept up with their payments. The surge in foreclosures reflects broader financial stress for Americans. Rising taxes and interest rates are pushing some behind on mortgages, while unpaid credit card bills and auto loans add further pressure.

USA - It’s double or quits for the civilised world, for the cause of human flourishing, freedom and democracy. Either Donald Trump holds his nerve, crushes the Iranian regime, rides out the oil shock and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, or he and America are finished, exposed as unserious, fickle and incapable of forward planning, a superpower manquée felled by drone-wielding barbarians. The challenge is Trump’s character, his willingness to accept short-term economic and electoral pain, not America or Israel’s exceptional military capacities. Does the US president, a hawk on Iran for 47 years, have it in him to finish the job, going down in history as the saviour of civilisation from nuclear Islamism, or is he merely the unidimensional man-child his critics believe him to be?

USA - Britain and France “won” the Suez war in 1956. They destroyed Egypt’s air force on the ground and gained total control of the skies within hours. They crippled Egypt’s tank forces. The assault was professional and achieved all of its immediate military objectives. Yet the Suez crisis degenerated into the worst humiliation since 1940 because the two powers failed to anticipate the economic fallout. Both faced capital flight and pressure on their fixed exchange rates.

IRAN - Iran has warned the world to prepare for oil to hit $200 a barrel, after it attacked three cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has all but cut off access to the waterway, a chokepoint in global trade that ordinarily sees around 20% of all oil pass through daily. Since the start of the war in the Middle East, however, it has established a domineering presence in the Strait, leading to oil prices hitting a peak of nearly $120 a barrel, before dropping to its price at time of publication of $87. Yesterday, Iran said it would not allow 'one litre of oil' to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue. It has made good on that threat, after today attacking several commercial ships in the Strait.

USA - Something significant happened in global financial markets this week that received far less attention than it deserved. BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager, overseeing more than $10 trillion in assets — blocked nearly half of the investors who requested withdrawals from its $26 billion private credit fund from getting their money back. Not because the fund had collapsed. Not because of fraud or regulatory intervention. Simply because too many people wanted out at the same time, and the fund didn’t have the liquidity to pay them all.

USA - On Monday, Donald Trump said the war on Iran was “very complete”. On Tuesday, Pete Hegseth, his secretary of defence, said Iran would face “the most intense day of strikes” yet in Operation Epic Fury. If the messaging seems confused, it may be because the US – and to a lesser extent Israel – has found itself caught in a classic military trap. By relying on overwhelming firepower, they have been suckered into what could yet prove to be another Vietnam. There, the US won every battle over 11 bloody years, but famously lost the war. This was despite it, as now, having complete air superiority, and quickly destroying most of the crucial military and industrial infrastructure on which the enemy was thought to rely.