USA - UBS analysts, led by Jonathan Pingle, told clients on Thursday morning that drought conditions across the US agricultural belt rank among the worst in more than 130 years: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Palmer Drought Severity Index hit its highest level for March since records started in 1895, and March was the third driest month recorded, regardless of time of year, behind only the famed 1930s Dust Bowl: July and August 1934.
GERMANY - Six days ago, in Marsberg, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized the US approach to Iran, saying Washington was being “humiliated by the Iranian leadership” and demanding the conflict end “as quickly as possible.” Three days ago, President Trump responded with an announcement that US troops in Germany would be drawn down, and there would be a 25% tariff on all imported European autos. Suddenly, Friedrich Merz reverses his position: When people argue that it’s not about the economics of the thing – remind them, IT’S ALWAYS ABOUT THE ECONOMICS OF THE THING.
UK - As the dust settles on an intense, targeted bombing campaign waged against the Islamic Republic in Iran, the focus now turns to how we combat the regime’s inevitable response. Because, make no mistake, there will be one. And here in the West it won’t come from the skies, but from our streets – something that may already have started. In recent weeks we have seen Iranian sleeper agents, hired thugs and radicalised regime supporters launch more than 20 violent attacks in the UK, Europe and the US.
MIDDLE EAST - The United States will launch an effort on Monday to “guide” stranded ships from the Iran-gripped Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said, as two ships around the strait reported attacks. Trump gave few details about what could be a sweeping attempt to help hundreds of vessels and some 20,000 seafarers. Iran quickly denounced the move as a ceasefire violation. Trump said in a social media post on Sunday that “neutral and innocent” countries have been affected by the Iran war, and “we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.” “Project Freedom” would begin on Monday morning in the Middle East, Trump said, adding that his representatives are having discussions with Iran that could lead to something “very positive for all.”
IRAN - Iran has proposed a one-month deadline to permanently end the war with the US and open the Strait of Hormuz. The latest deal submitted by Tehran to Donald Trump via mediators in Pakistan would leave the issue of its nuclear capabilities unresolved until after agreement has been met on other issues. The proposal arrived as oil analysts warned that a “tipping point” in global crude oil reserves would be hit by the end of May, threatening to send prices soaring in the summer. The 14-point plan would require both sides to lift their blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, completely end the war in Lebanon, and release Iran’s frozen assets. It would also require the US to pay compensation and lift sanctions against Tehran. Iran has proposed a deadline of a month for the two sides to reach an agreement on a permanent end to the war. Only in a second stage would the two sides discuss the country’s nuclear programme.
CHINA - Washington has previously warned banks against dealing with companies allegedly involved in Iran’s oil trade. China’s Ministry of Commerce has instructed domestic companies not to comply with US sanctions targeting refiners allegedly linked to the Iranian oil trade. Late last month, the US Treasury warned banks against dealing with so-called “teapot” refineries, privately owned companies which it said account for the majority of the oil China buys from Iran. “This revenue ultimately benefits the Iranian regime, its weapons programs, and its military,” the Treasury said in its notice.
USA - Donald Trump has warned that American forces could “almost immediately” take over Cuba on the way back from Iran. The US president suggested that the Cuban government would simply “give up” if a US warship appeared off the coast of Havana. Referring to an attendee during a speech at the non-profit Forum Club in Florida on Friday, Mr Trump said: “He comes from, originally, a place called Cuba, which we will be taking over almost immediately.” He added: “Cuba’s got problems. We’ll finish one first, I like to finish a job [first]. What we’ll do on the way back from Iran, we’ll have one of our big, maybe the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier – the biggest in the world – we’ll have that come in, stop about 100 yards offshore, and they’ll say, ‘Thank you very much. We give up.’”
USA - Donald Trump has said he will ratchet up tariffs on the EU, accusing it of shirking the terms of its trade deal with the US. On Friday, the US president declared he would raise levies on imported European vehicles from 15 per cent to 25 per cent. The move was met with criticism in Brussels, with a top official saying it illustrated how “unreliable” the US had become. Mr Trump announced his action a day after dropping tariffs on Scottish whisky, in what was seen as a diplomatic and economic success stemming from the King’s state visit. “Based on the fact the European Union is not complying with our fully agreed trade deal, next week I will be increasing tariffs charged to the European Union for cars and trucks coming into the United States,” Mr Trump wrote on Truth Social.
USA - The US has warned Britain that there will be long delays to missile deliveries as it struggles to replenish stockpiles because of the Iran war. The Pentagon informed the UK, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia – among other allies – that serious delays were expected for several missile systems. US officials were said to be concerned about inventory levels because so many missiles had been committed to Donald Trump’s war on Iran. The Pentagon has been forced to draw down stockpiles from other regions, including the Indo-Pacific, to compensate for the shortfalls. The situation could leave Britain more exposed, with Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, already under fire for a lack of investment in defence.
USA - The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz caused immediate shocks to the world oil market, but analysts are also afraid that rising food prices and fertilizer shortages could increase the risk of famine in struggling nations. Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen told Fox News Digital on Thursday that the “worst-case” scenario would resemble “the eight-year closure of the Suez Canal from 1967 to 1975.” “Best case, there is an agreement between the US and Iran within the next few weeks, and the Strait reopens — and it has to be a deal where there is trust that Iran is sufficiently satisfied with the deal such that they do not suddenly close the strait again,” Jensen said. “Even in that case, it will still take months for the supply chains to revert back to normality,” he added.
UK - Food prices up 10 per cent by Christmas. Shortages of chicken and pork on supermarket shelves by June. Mass crop failures. While it might sound like a scene plucked from the mid-1940s, these are plausible consequences of the war in Iran for Britain in the coming months, according to Whitehall’s latest emergency assessments and food policy experts. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February, through which around a quarter of the world’s oil and gas is transported, has triggered an unprecedented crisis in global energy supply.
GERMANY - Trump has publicly criticized German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the leaders of other NATO member states for not getting directly involved in the US's military campaign against Iran. The US military has a massive presence in Germany dating back to the aftermath of World War II and the Cold War. More than 36,000 active duty troops were assigned to bases throughout Germany as of last December, along with nearly 1,500 reservists and 11,500 civilians, according to Defense Department figures. Japan is the only foreign country with a larger presence of US troops. Germany is also home to the headquarters of US European Command and Africa Command, and its Ramstein Air Base is a key hub for US operations. Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said the withdrawal will take place over the next six to 12 months.
USA - The Pentagon is preparing “short and powerful” strikes to break Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. The US has drawn up plans to target the regime’s infrastructure, before pressing it to return to the negotiating table. Details emerged from sources briefing Axios, whose reporters also spoke directly with Donald Trump. The US president has appeared increasingly frustrated by Iran’s refusal to give up its nuclear ambitions, an issue on which peace talks have foundered. Mr Trump signalled on Wednesday that he believed the US’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, designed to choke off Iran’s oil revenues, was paying dividends. “The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them,” Mr Trump said. Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, claimed Iran was on the cusp of losing some $170 million per day in revenues as it struggled to store its unsold oil.
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