MIDDLE EAST - Marathon US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad produced no breakthroughs, no progress on diminution of the continuing threat the ayatollahs pose to the Middle East and the world. It was never clear why Donald Trump thought negotiations would succeed, but he must now decide whether to return to military force or accept an enormous international political setback.
MIDDLE EAST - For a moment, history seemed to beckon. With negotiations stretching into the night and large teams of technical experts on both sides swapping drafts, there were excited rumours that, just maybe, the impossible was about to happen. So much for that. After 21 hours of talks at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad, JD Vance, the US vice-president, emerged bleary-eyed to call the whole thing off. He had offered the Iranians a take-it-or-leave-it deal. They left it. “We’ve made very clear what our red lines are,” he told reporters. “They have chosen not to accept our terms.”
USA - Donald Trump has said Pope Leo is “terrible for foreign policy” after the pontiff made a plea for peace in the Middle East. The US president posted on his Truth Social platform that the first American pope was “weak on crime”, urging him to “stop catering to the Radical Left”. Mr Trump wrote: “I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s okay for Iran to have a nuclear weapon.” He claimed the leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics had been elected because the Vatican thought it would be the “best way to deal with President Donald J Trump”. Pope Leo reacted by saying he was “not afraid of the Trump administration, nor of telling the message of the Gospel”.
ISRAEL - Israel’s army has been ordered to move to a heightened state of readiness and prepare for a return to war with Iran. Eyal Zamir, the Israel Defense Forces chief, told army units to enter war preparation mode by shortening response times and closing operational gaps. The IDF’s military intelligence directorate is increasing its list of targets in Iran, focusing on military targets including missile launchers. In co-ordination with the operations directorate, the Israeli air force is finalising updated strike plans, assembling integrated attack packages that emphasise long-range capabilities, accuracy and operational endurance, YNET reported. The IDF is also preparing its defensive capabilities in case of a renewed war with Iran, reinforcing its air defence systems. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has said the Israeli and American “achievements” in Iran “are not yet finished”.
HUNGARY - Viktor Orban’s defeat does not mean that Hungarian voters have rejected his tough on immigration, pro-natalist or Brussels-critical policies. The electoral winners, Peter Magyar and his Tisza party, have achieved their robust electoral mandate on the back of a remarkably similar electoral programme. Magyar is a social conservative who wants to increase financial incentives to have children, cut taxes, double the defence budget, and has criticised Orban for admitting too many migrants under Hungary’s guest worker schemes. On effectively every issue he sits firmly on the Right of European politics.
NEW ZEALAND - A powerful cyclone has hit New Zealand, causing large waves, extensive flooding and power outages across the country’s North Island. Cyclone Vaianu turned roads into rivers, brought down trees and forced hundreds of people to evacuate their homes. Flooding and fallen trees forced the closure of major roads.The cyclone brought winds exceeding 80mph, torrential rain and heavy sea swells. The cyclone struck the North Island close to the town of Maketu, with the national weather provider, MetService, describing it as a “life-threatening” system. “The combination of damaging winds, heavy rain and coastal inundation makes this a multi-hazard, potentially life-threatening event,” the service said.
UK - Sir Keir Starmer said Britain would not support a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as he insisted the UK would not be getting “dragged into” a wider conflict. The price of oil rose above $100 a barrel as the US announced it would be blocking “all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports” from 10am ET (3pm BST). President Trump attacked Pope Leo as “weak” after the pontiff denounced the “delusion of omnipotence” that he claimed had motivated the war in Iran. The president also said he did not care if negotiations with Tehran restarted, as reports suggest he is considering resuming some military strikes on the country.
USA - President Trump has posted an AI-generated image seemingly depicting himself as Jesus Christ, after attacking Pope Leo for not supporting his war in Iran. In the image, posted at the same time as the US president attacked Leo for being “weak” on crime and “terrible” for foreign policy, Trump appears dressed in red and white robes as he seemingly cures a man. The American flag is shown over his shoulder. The image was shared on the president’s Truth Social site. Speaking to reporters on Sunday at the Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, Trump said: “I’m not a big fan of Pope Leo. He’s a very liberal person, and he’s a man that doesn’t believe in stopping crime.” He also accused the pontiff of “toying with a country that wants a nuclear weapon.”
VATICAN - Massimo Faggioli, an Italian expert on the papacy, has told Reuters that Trump’s comments went beyond criticisms of the papacy made by leaders of Germany and Italy during the Second World War to try and draw Pope Pius XII to support their causes. “Not even Hitler or Mussolini attacked the pope so directly and publicly,” said Faggioli. Paul Coakley, the Archbishop of Oklahoma City and the president of the US Conference of Catholic Bishops, said he was disheartened by Trump’s comments. “Pope Leo is not his rival; nor is the Pope a politician. He ...speaks from the truth of the Gospel and for the care of souls,” he said in a statement.
UK - In two weeks’ time, King Charles will be in the White House meeting Donald Trump. He has met ten US presidents in his lifetime but this state visit is the most controversial following Trump’s recent criticism of Britain. Charles will be able to draw on a well of goodwill from the US president, plus the experience of almost two dozen visits to America over the course of his royal career in his mission to restore amicable relations between the nations. Charles nurtured the relationship by writing a private letter to Trump after the assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally during the 2024 election, and another to congratulate him on his victory in November. Neither has been made public.
ETHIOPIA - Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian prime minister, has reignited tensions with Eritrea with renewed calls for access to the Red Sea. His push comes after the collapse of his alliance with Isaias Afwerki, the leader of Eritrea, following the fallout from the Tigray war. As instability grows in neighbouring Sudan amid an ongoing civil war, a complex web of regional alliances is forming — drawing in Gulf powers and reshaping the balance across the Horn of Africa. Has this set the stage for a renewed conflict between the two nations?
USA - Farmers all over America are on edge right now, and I certainly can’t blame them. The war in the Middle East has created a fertilizer crisis at the worst time possible. If nitrogen fertilizer is not applied to wheat, corn and rice at the proper time, there is no hope of recovery later. Since it does not appear that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened any time soon, there will be serious crop losses in the United States, and in poorer countries throughout the world it will be even worse. Meanwhile, most of the country is experiencing at least some level of drought right now. If you check out the latest map from the US Drought Monitor, it looks like a horror show. Even if there was no war going on in the Middle East, farmers in the US would still be facing a nightmarish drought that never seems to end. A real life nightmare is playing out right in front of our eyes, and it appears that we are still only in the very early stages.
USA - History provides a useful point of comparison here. Consider an interview given by Vice-President Vance to UnHerd on April 15, 2025. “Just going back through history, I think — frankly — the British and the French were certainly right in their disagreements with Eisenhower about the Suez Canal,” he said. It will be a richly ironic development if the vice-president of the United States one day finds himself in the position of Harold Macmillan, who succeeded Anthony Eden as prime minister after the Suez Crisis of 1956. That year, after Egypt nationalised the Suez Canal, Britain, along with France and Israel, attempted to seize the waterway and topple the regime of Gamal Abdel Nasser. President Eisenhower refused to back the operation.
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