GERMANY - The weapons will close an important strategic gap in European defence, but may take a while to materialise. Germany’s chancellor has announced a long-awaited deal to buy long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. The weapons will plug an important hole in the European wall of deterrence against the Kremlin, providing a ground-launched system that can implicitly “punish” any invasion by hitting bases and other strategic targets deep inside Russian territory. It may be some time before the Tomahawks are delivered because the US is estimated to have used up more than 1,000 of the missiles in its strikes on Iran, depleting a pre-war inventory of about 3,100.

IRAN - Iran’s leaders have learnt a fundamental lesson from the war with the United States: the West runs on oil, and Iran sits astride the routes that carry it. That calculation now drives Tehran’s preparations as the ceasefire unravels into open conflict. The US struck 90 targets overnight, killing more than a dozen people. Iran launched retaliatory missiles and drones at American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain “in the first phase of punitive response against the American covenant-breakers”. “Any renewed aggression on the part of the enemy must be met with a response that directly targets the vital interests of the United States and its allies,” it said.

UK - The Personal Independence Payment (PIP) is “not fit for purpose”, according to a report from an internal government review. This overused phrase begs an obvious question: what is its purpose? PIPs, introduced in 2013, are non-means tested payments to help those with disabilities with living costs. Total PIP claims in England and Wales now stand at four million, up from 3.6 million when Labour took power. Around £3 billion a year is paid to people with mental health problems such as ADHD, something that until relatively recently would not have qualified. More than 100,000 people with ADHD as their main condition now receive PIPs, an increase of 40 percent in such cases since 2024.

UK - While Britain considers a potential confrontation with Russia, it reportedly operates the smallest fleet in its history. The Royal Navy has been reduced to the worst state in British history, retired chief of the Naval Staff, Lord Alan West, has told the Sun. London now operates the smallest fleet ever, according to the outlet. A total of nine ships have been scrapped over the past two years under Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the UK is now operating a fleet that includes five operational frigates and no amphibious assault ships, the Sun reported on Friday. The government dropped plans for new Type 83 destroyers and Type 32 frigates, calling them “unaffordable,” it added. Last month, The Telegraph and Daily Mail also reported that the UK’s entire available fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines is stuck in port awaiting maintenance.

CHINA - China has abruptly banned helium exports, a key component in semiconductors, which adds yet another serious constraint to a global market already reeling from the loss of production in Qatar. In a two-sentence Friday announcement, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs said helium covered by customs code 2804290010 was subject to a temporary prohibition on exports, effective immediately. The decision is more restrictive than an export-licensing requirement. It appears to prevent covered shipments to all foreign destinations, regardless of buyer or intended use. Nor does it carve out exceptions for hospitals, scientific laboratories, semiconductor manufacturers or humanitarian users. Helium is generally recovered as a byproduct of natural-gas processing. When a large gas complex stops operating, helium production cannot simply continue independently.

USA - The Iran war saga has seen its fair share of bizarre and wild twists, and Friday has brought yet another - with the NY Post reporting that President Trump said he "left instructions" for a massive bombing campaign against Iran in the event he's assassinated by Iranian operatives. "I’ve been on their list for a long time. That’s what we’re dealing with," he told New York Post. Then he followed with: "The only thing is, I've left instructions - if anything happens, to just literally bomb them at levels that they've never seen before."

CHINA - The Chinese Foreign Ministry lamented the resurgence of violence between Iran and the United States on Wednesday, urging both countries to “follow through on their memorandum of understanding” and “avoid resorting to force.” China regularly condemns America for alleged belligerence on the geopolitical stage; the Foreign Ministry choosing to demand equal respect for their current peace agreement from Washington and Tehran is notable, however. Beijing referred to the hostilities as a matter that its close ally and prominent oil supplier Iran was equally responsible for rather than blaming the United States exclusively. Speaking to reporters during her regular briefing, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning stated that China was “closely following” recent hostilities related to Iran and discouraged military escalation.

EUROPE - From the moment the Trump administration signed the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding with Tehran last month, serious doubts were raised about its chances of achieving Trump’s two key goals – ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and safeguarding freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent Iranian attacks on merchant shipping in the Gulf, which have inevitably prompted a robust response from the American military, have raised concerns about Tehran’s bona fides in terms of agreeing a lasting deal.

MIDDLE EAST - Donald Trump’s decision to launch military strikes against Iran in February alongside Israel had a certain rationale to it. The regime was continuing to develop a nuclear weapon and was a destabilising influence in an already volatile region. At the time, we said that, once he started the war, the US president needed to see it through to the end. The decapitation of the regime with the death of Ayatollah Khamenei and many of his top team was accompanied by widespread damage to the country’s armed forces and critical infrastructure.

USA - It was only three weeks ago that Donald Trump sat in the mirrored splendour of the Palace of Versailles and signed a memorandum of understanding designed to end his war with Iran. Now he has declared the agreement to be “over” and denounced its Iranian signatories as “scum”, “liars” and “sick people” – and the hard reality is that no-one should be surprised. The 14-point memorandum was a hollow shell of an agreement that settled nothing. For Trump, its sole purpose was to allow him to claim a swift victory. For Iran’s leaders, it was a survival plan intended to strengthen their grip on power. Not one of the central points of contention between America and Iran was finally resolved by the memorandum.

TURKEY - Turkey’s emergence as a key pillar of European defence was gradual at first. Ankara sold its pioneering drones to Ukraine, helping to destroy Russian tanks. It hosted early rounds of Ukraine-Russia peace talks. When the Assad regime fell in Syria, neighbouring Turkey emerged as a diplomatic bridge between the international community and Damascus’s new government.

USA - The US president’s warmth toward Ankara is rattling West Jerusalem, but the real test is whether F-35s and engine deals ever make it through Congress. There’s a real love-triangle dynamic playing out right now between the US, Türkiye, and Israel. Donald Trump is going out of his way to be seen embracing Recep Tayyip Erdogan, talking up sanctions relief and reopening the door on F-35 fighter jets and engines for Türkiye’s homegrown KAAN program. At the same time, Benjamin Netanyahu is working overtime to protect Israel’s privileged position in US Middle East policy, warning anyone who’ll listen that handing Türkiye advanced weapons systems would upend the regional balance of power.

UK - Ed Miliband has extended the life of the ageing Sizewell B nuclear plant for another 20 years, amid growing concerns that Britain is at risk of power shortages. The nuclear power station in Suffolk, which provides 3 percent of the UK’s total electricity needs, was scheduled to close in 2035 but will now be upgraded and kept in operation until at least 2055. The extension was secured under a new deal agreed between the Government and EDF, France’s state-owned generator, which runs all five of the UK’s remaining nuclear power stations. The move is aimed at bridging a gap in nuclear power output later in the decade as Britain’s fleet of ageing reactors is retired. EDF confirmed that all of the UK’s other four nuclear power stations will close within four years. Hartlepool and Heysham 1 will both close in 2028, while Heysham 2 and Torness will shut in 2030. The closures mean that Sizewell B is likely to become the UK’s only operating nuclear power station from the start of the next decade. This has triggered concerns about shortages that would increase the UK’s reliance on imported electricity, in turn pushing up household prices.

UK - Britain will face fuel shortages over the winter if Andy Burnham fails to approve a new gas project in the North Sea, its operator has said. Neil McCulloch, whose energy company Adura is preparing to drill for gas at the Jackdaw field, said the site would be crucial to securing gas supplies this winter. The project faced a legal challenge from environmental campaigners and was blocked after a court ruled that it had been approved illegally. But it is now seeking new approval and the decision will fall to Andy Burnham’s government if, as expected, he becomes prime minister later this month. Mr McCulloch said the project was ready to drill from October 1 and would meet 6 percent of Britain’s gas demand. He told the BBC that the UK needed the field in the event of a “gas supply emergency”, such as adverse weather or sabotage by a hostile state. “The wells are drilled; they’re hooked up. We’re just readying the systems. It will be ready for the 1st of October.”

UK - It’s 2053 and for the third day in a row the water has been turned off across the south of England. You turn on the radio to hear that another of England’s chalk streams, this time the River Itchen in Hampshire, has run dry. Europe, which is increasingly hostile to Britain, is threatening to withhold all food exports. Vast swathes of prime farmland were taken out of production to house solar panels years ago and there is almost no produce grown any longer on arid English soil. For the first time since the Second World War, food is poised to be rationed. It sounds like an improbable dystopian hellscape, something out of a post-apocalyptic novel. But for some climate scientists and engineers this is not science fiction, but a very realistic scenario for the UK.